Trade Replay

Status
complete
Executed
2026-06-29 10:08:09
Fill Price
0.96200000
Notional
$10.00
Position PnL
$-0.05
Order Status
filled

Replay Inputs

{ "decision": { "id": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "strategyParameterHash": "130caed525ca4ad827a68dc0463fdae9ec3e1d04b8a3463b8e97034b5deb1970", "opportunityId": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "action": "buy", "status": "executed", "mode": "paper", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "outcome": "No", "requestedSizeUsd": "10", "approvedSizeUsd": "10", "limitPrice": "0.962", "confidence": "0.985", "estimatedNetEv": "0.23908524", "rationale": "Buy No at 0.96200000 with confidence 0.98500000 and net EV 0.23908524.", "whyNow": "polymarket market data is fresh, liquid enough, within configured price range, and passes strategy EV filters.", "reasonCode": null, "resolvedConfigSnapshot": { "mode": "paper", "priceMax": "0.98500000", "priceMin": "0.94000000", "maxSpread": "0.02000000", "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "minConfidence": "0.98500000", "minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000", "minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000", "orderTtlSeconds": 120, "allowFakeMarkets": false, "exitEarlyEnabled": false, "marketDataSource": "polymarket", "maxPositionSizeUsd": "10.00000000", "maxMarketExposureUsd": "15.00000000", "maxStrategyExposureUsd": "50.00000000", "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30, "maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168, "allowSubjectiveCategories": false }, "configSnapshotHash": "130caed525ca4ad827a68dc0463fdae9ec3e1d04b8a3463b8e97034b5deb1970", "marketSnapshotId": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "rawSnapshotId": null, "replayStatus": "complete", "missingReplayDataReason": null, "inputs": { "market": { "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "rules": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "adapter": "polymarket", "bestAsk": "0.96200000", "bestBid": "0.95700000", "midPrice": "0.95950000", "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "orderBook": { "raw": { "asks": [ { "size": "15534", "price": "0.999" }, { "size": "9513.2", "price": "0.998" }, { "size": "1000", "price": "0.997" }, { "size": "401", "price": "0.996" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.993" }, { "size": "10615.2", "price": "0.992" }, { "size": "3184.56", "price": "0.991" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.99" }, { "size": "144", "price": "0.988" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.987" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.976" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.974" }, { "size": "770", "price": "0.971" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.967" }, { "size": "152.26", "price": "0.963" }, { "size": "887.2", "price": "0.962" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29", "price": "0.001" }, { "size": "7500", "price": "0.002" }, { "size": "10007.11", "price": "0.003" }, { "size": "5000", "price": "0.004" }, { "size": "2500", "price": "0.006" }, { "size": "9.52", "price": "0.007" }, { "size": "74505", "price": "0.01" }, { "size": "6112.31", "price": "0.011" }, { "size": "32749.99", "price": "0.02" }, { "size": "7663.71", "price": "0.021" }, { "size": "17500", "price": "0.03" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.031" }, { "size": "15537.5", "price": "0.04" }, { "size": "8670", "price": "0.05" }, { "size": "6.46", "price": "0.051" }, { "size": "6666.67", "price": "0.06" }, { "size": "3928.57", "price": "0.07" }, { "size": "14800", "price": "0.071" }, { "size": "4062.5", "price": "0.08" }, { "size": "666.67", "price": "0.09" }, { "size": "4500", "price": "0.1" }, { "size": "1923.08", "price": "0.13" }, { "size": "14400", "price": "0.131" }, { "size": "4320", "price": "0.132" }, { "size": "3070", "price": "0.14" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.141" }, { "size": "1250", "price": "0.16" }, { "size": "5.08", "price": "0.163" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.164" }, { "size": "495", "price": "0.181" }, { "size": "152", "price": "0.182" }, { "size": "154.05", "price": "0.325" }, { "size": "126.12", "price": "0.333" }, { "size": "1763", "price": "0.341" }, { "size": "528.9", "price": "0.342" }, { "size": "400", "price": "0.35" }, { "size": "5.05", "price": "0.4" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.423" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.458" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.489" }, { "size": "70.28", "price": "0.498" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.526" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.602" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.618" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.632" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.652" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.662" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.692" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.722" }, { "size": "2000", "price": "0.739" }, { "size": "600", "price": "0.74" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.752" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.772" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.779" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.782" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.783" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.785" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.795" }, { "size": "1008.32", "price": "0.801" }, { "size": "302.49", "price": "0.802" }, { "size": "1685", "price": "0.803" }, { "size": "96", "price": "0.811" }, { "size": "72", "price": "0.821" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.822" }, { "size": "97", "price": "0.831" }, { "size": "95", "price": "0.835" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.838" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.841" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.848" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.849" }, { "size": "105", "price": "0.851" }, { "size": "10", "price": "0.853" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.854" }, { "size": "350.8", "price": "0.88" }, { "size": "11.32", "price": "0.883" }, { "size": "156", "price": "0.897" }, { "size": "5.99", "price": "0.91" }, { "size": "500", "price": "0.932" }, { "size": "113", "price": "0.936" }, { "size": "22.13", "price": "0.939" }, { "size": "161.48", "price": "0.941" }, { "size": "100.1", "price": "0.943" }, { "size": "52", "price": "0.944" }, { "size": "31.61", "price": "0.951" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.956" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.957" } ], "hash": "79af6b7163a4136e556054d7cf13f97f5a1c1349", "market": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "asset_id": "74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003", "neg_risk": true, "tick_size": "0.001", "timestamp": "1782727689102", "min_order_size": "5", "last_trade_price": "0.038" }, "asks": [ { "size": "15534.00000000", "price": "0.99900000" }, { "size": "9513.20000000", "price": "0.99800000" }, { "size": "1000.00000000", "price": "0.99700000" }, { "size": "401.00000000", "price": "0.99600000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.99300000" }, { "size": "10615.20000000", "price": "0.99200000" }, { "size": "3184.56000000", "price": "0.99100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.99000000" }, { "size": "144.00000000", "price": "0.98800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.98700000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.97600000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.97400000" }, { "size": "770.00000000", "price": "0.97100000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.96700000" }, { "size": "152.26000000", "price": "0.96300000" }, { "size": "887.20000000", "price": "0.96200000" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29000000", "price": "0.00100000" }, { "size": "7500.00000000", "price": "0.00200000" }, { "size": "10007.11000000", "price": "0.00300000" }, { "size": "5000.00000000", "price": "0.00400000" }, { "size": "2500.00000000", "price": "0.00600000" }, { "size": "9.52000000", "price": "0.00700000" }, { "size": "74505.00000000", "price": "0.01000000" }, { "size": "6112.31000000", "price": "0.01100000" }, { "size": "32749.99000000", "price": "0.02000000" }, { "size": "7663.71000000", "price": "0.02100000" }, { "size": "17500.00000000", "price": "0.03000000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.03100000" }, { "size": "15537.50000000", "price": "0.04000000" }, { "size": "8670.00000000", "price": "0.05000000" }, { "size": "6.46000000", "price": "0.05100000" }, { "size": "6666.67000000", "price": "0.06000000" }, { "size": "3928.57000000", "price": "0.07000000" }, { "size": "14800.00000000", "price": "0.07100000" }, { "size": "4062.50000000", "price": "0.08000000" }, { "size": "666.67000000", "price": "0.09000000" }, { "size": "4500.00000000", "price": "0.10000000" }, { "size": "1923.08000000", "price": "0.13000000" }, { "size": "14400.00000000", "price": "0.13100000" }, { "size": "4320.00000000", "price": "0.13200000" }, { "size": "3070.00000000", "price": "0.14000000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.14100000" }, { "size": "1250.00000000", "price": "0.16000000" }, { "size": "5.08000000", "price": "0.16300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.16400000" }, { "size": "495.00000000", "price": "0.18100000" }, { "size": "152.00000000", "price": "0.18200000" }, { "size": "154.05000000", "price": "0.32500000" }, { "size": "126.12000000", "price": "0.33300000" }, { "size": "1763.00000000", "price": "0.34100000" }, { "size": "528.90000000", "price": "0.34200000" }, { "size": "400.00000000", "price": "0.35000000" }, { "size": "5.05000000", "price": "0.40000000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.42300000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.45800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.48900000" }, { "size": "70.28000000", "price": "0.49800000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.52600000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.60200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.61800000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.63200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.65200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.66200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.69200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.72200000" }, { "size": "2000.00000000", "price": "0.73900000" }, { "size": "600.00000000", "price": "0.74000000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.75200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.77200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.77900000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.78200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.78300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.78500000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.79500000" }, { "size": "1008.32000000", "price": "0.80100000" }, { "size": "302.49000000", "price": "0.80200000" }, { "size": "1685.00000000", "price": "0.80300000" }, { "size": "96.00000000", "price": "0.81100000" }, { "size": "72.00000000", "price": "0.82100000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.82200000" }, { "size": "97.00000000", "price": "0.83100000" }, { "size": "95.00000000", "price": "0.83500000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.83800000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.84100000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.84800000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.84900000" }, { "size": "105.00000000", "price": "0.85100000" }, { "size": "10.00000000", "price": "0.85300000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.85400000" }, { "size": "350.80000000", "price": "0.88000000" }, { "size": "11.32000000", "price": "0.88300000" }, { "size": "156.00000000", "price": "0.89700000" }, { "size": "5.99000000", "price": "0.91000000" }, { "size": "500.00000000", "price": "0.93200000" }, { "size": "113.00000000", "price": "0.93600000" }, { "size": "22.13000000", "price": "0.93900000" }, { "size": "161.48000000", "price": "0.94100000" }, { "size": "100.10000000", "price": "0.94300000" }, { "size": "52.00000000", "price": "0.94400000" }, { "size": "31.61000000", "price": "0.95100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.95600000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.95700000" } ], "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.102Z" }, "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "externalId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "sourceMarket": { "id": "608364", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "ready": false, "active": true, "closed": false, "events": [ { "id": "48292", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "title": "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap", "active": true, "closed": false, "series": [ { "id": "11110", "icon": "", "slug": "openai-ipo", "image": "", "title": "OpenAI IPO", "active": true, "closed": false, "ticker": "openai-ipo", "volume": 1962707.211191001, "archived": false, "createdAt": "2026-02-03T19:08:05.347291Z", "liquidity": 177284.64411, "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:06:06.149571Z", "recurrence": "annual", "seriesType": "single", "volume24hr": 2740.587337, "commentCount": 18, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "ticker": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "volume": 1917548.401532001, "endDate": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z", "negRisk": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:01.62756Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": 122697.17175, "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:55.736268Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:56.110408Z", "volume1mo": 205683.801175, "volume1wk": 26058.5214, "volume1yr": 1917548.401532002, "restricted": true, "seriesSlug": "openai-ipo", "volume24hr": 2671.467337, "competitive": 0.938945095185559, "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "commentCount": 0, "creationDate": "2025-09-23T00:29:27.839245Z", "gmpChartMode": "default", "openInterest": 71876.488969, "enableNegRisk": true, "estimateValue": false, "eventMetadata": { "context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:18:26.027Z", "context_description": "**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.", "context_requires_regen": true }, "liquidityClob": 122697.17175, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "showAllOutcomes": true, "negRiskAugmented": false, "resolutionSource": "", "showMarketImages": false, "cumulativeMarkets": false, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:16:44.730826Z", "automaticallyActive": true, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "funded": false, "spread": 0.005, "volume": "170103.9927840002", "bestAsk": 0.043, "bestBid": 0.038, "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "feeType": "finance_prices_fees", "negRisk": true, "umaBond": "500", "approved": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]", "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:04.541972Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": "18055.10714", "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:56.831364Z", "umaReward": "5", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:51.401903Z", "volume1mo": 19585.889451, "volume1wk": 2143.85648, "volume1yr": 170103.9927840001, "volumeNum": 170103.9927840002, "endDateIso": "2026-06-30", "questionID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf02", "resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d", "restricted": true, "rfqEnabled": false, "volume24hr": 119.8, "volumeClob": 170103.9927840002, "clobRewards": [ { "id": "35542", "endDate": "2500-12-31", "startDate": "2026-06-12", "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174", "rewardsAmount": 0, "rewardsDailyRate": 3 } ], "comboStatus": "disabled", "competitive": 0.8256682081204055, "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "feeSchedule": { "rate": 0.04, "exponent": 1, "takerOnly": true, "rebateRate": 0.25 }, "feesEnabled": true, "seriesColor": "", "clobTokenIds": "[\"86904220753614324927759730619985568200215013704321476651673438801320577270597\", \"74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003\"]", "liquidityNum": 18055.10714, "makerBaseFee": 1000, "negRiskOther": false, "orderMinSize": 5, "startDateIso": "2025-09-23", "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5", "takerBaseFee": 1000, "liquidityClob": 18055.10714, "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0405\", \"0.9595\"]", "showGmpSeries": false, "volume1moClob": 19585.889451, "volume1wkClob": 2143.85648, "volume1yrClob": 170103.9927840001, "customLiveness": 0, "groupItemTitle": "750B–1T", "lastTradePrice": 0.038, "rewardsMinSize": 100, "showGmpOutcome": false, "volume24hrClob": 119.8, "acceptingOrders": true, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "clearBookOnStart": true, "hasReviewedDates": true, "manualActivation": false, "negRiskRequestID": "0x02cfa83bf674f5c8de6c027f45d13c44287bb6a17a9b37b6a9d65dd6423ca58f", "resolutionSource": "", "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5, "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:18:08.062306Z", "groupItemThreshold": "2", "marketMakerAddress": "", "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0235, "automaticallyActive": true, "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035, "requiresTranslation": false, "holdingRewardsEnabled": false, "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001, "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]", "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:22:36Z", "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false }, "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "resolutionTime": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z", "visibleLiquidityUsd": "853.48640000", "clearResolutionRules": true, "estimatedFeePerShare": "0.00000000", "estimatedSlippagePerShare": "0.00000000" }, "adapter": "polymarket", "opportunityFeatures": { "price": "0.96200000", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "source": "polymarket", "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "outcome": "No", "confidence": "0.98500000", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "dataAgeSeconds": -1, "confidenceSource": "configured_min_confidence_floor_for_phase_3_paper_mode", "hoursToResolution": 13.864125, "objectiveResolution": null, "clearResolutionRules": true } }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.462Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.767Z", "riskChecks": [ { "id": "cmqz21m66016cpa0jqefos2s5", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "result": "approved", "requestedSizeUsd": "10", "approvedSizeUsd": "10", "checks": [ { "code": "KILL_SWITCH_OFF", "name": "kill_switch", "facts": { "killSwitchEnabled": false }, "reason": "Global kill switch is off.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "STRATEGY_RUNNABLE", "name": "strategy_enabled", "facts": { "enabled": true, "lifecycle": "paper" }, "reason": "Strategy is enabled and runnable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MODE_ALLOWED", "name": "mode_allowed", "facts": { "decisionMode": "paper", "strategyMode": "paper", "liveTradingEnabled": false }, "reason": "Decision mode is allowed.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "ACTION_ALLOWED", "name": "action_allowed", "facts": { "action": "buy" }, "reason": "Decision action is executable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "DAILY_LOSS_BELOW_LIMIT", "name": "daily_loss", "facts": { "dailyLossUsd": "0.00000000", "globalDailyLossLimitUsd": "100.00000000" }, "reason": "Daily loss is below the cap.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "75.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "55.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Global open exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_STRATEGY_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_strategy_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "50.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "30.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Strategy exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_MARKET_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_market_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "15.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "15.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Market exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_POSITION_SIZE_OK", "name": "max_position_size", "facts": { "limit": "10.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "10.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Position size limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MARKET_DATA_FRESH", "name": "stale_data", "facts": { "marketAgeSeconds": -1, "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30 }, "reason": "Market data is fresh.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NO_DUPLICATE_DECISION", "name": "duplicate_decision", "facts": { "duplicateDecision": false }, "reason": "No recent similar order exists.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NET_EV_OK", "name": "min_ev", "facts": { "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "estimatedNetEvUsd": "0.23908524" }, "reason": "Net expected value passes risk threshold.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "PRICE_WITHIN_MAX", "name": "max_price", "facts": { "maxPrice": "0.98500000", "limitPrice": "0.96200000" }, "reason": "Limit price is within configured maximum.", "status": "pass" } ], "rejectionCode": null, "rejectionReason": null, "blockingReasons": null, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.629Z" } ], "opportunity": { "id": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "status": "decided", "side": "buy", "outcome": "No", "price": "0.962", "sizeUsd": "10", "estimatedGrossEv": "0.23908524", "estimatedNetEv": "0.23908524", "confidence": "0.985", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714", "spread": "0.005", "reason": null, "rejectionStage": null, "rejectionCode": null, "rejectionReason": null, "features": { "price": "0.96200000", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "source": "polymarket", "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "outcome": "No", "confidence": "0.98500000", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "dataAgeSeconds": -1, "confidenceSource": "configured_min_confidence_floor_for_phase_3_paper_mode", "hoursToResolution": 13.864125, "objectiveResolution": null, "clearResolutionRules": true }, "configSnapshot": { "mode": "paper", "priceMax": "0.98500000", "priceMin": "0.94000000", "maxSpread": "0.02000000", "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "minConfidence": "0.98500000", "minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000", "minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000", "orderTtlSeconds": 120, "allowFakeMarkets": false, "exitEarlyEnabled": false, "marketDataSource": "polymarket", "killSwitchEnabled": false, "maxOpenExposureUsd": "75.00000000", "maxPositionSizeUsd": "10.00000000", "polymarket.baseUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com", "polymarket.enabled": true, "maxMarketExposureUsd": "15.00000000", "polymarket.timeoutMs": 5000, "polymarket.maxRetries": 2, "maxStrategyExposureUsd": "50.00000000", "globalDailyLossLimitUsd": "100.00000000", "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30, "maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168, "allowSubjectiveCategories": false, "polymarket.rateLimitBackoffMs": 1000 }, "configSnapshotHash": "409189b16451befd54211ba6e5f3b87ff4ff4b54b688cc7905871ceaff8bff55", "marketSnapshotId": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "rawSnapshotId": null, "raw": { "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "rules": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "adapter": "polymarket", "bestAsk": "0.96200000", "bestBid": "0.95700000", "category": null, "midPrice": "0.95950000", "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "orderBook": { "raw": { "asks": [ { "size": "15534", "price": "0.999" }, { "size": "9513.2", "price": "0.998" }, { "size": "1000", "price": "0.997" }, { "size": "401", "price": "0.996" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.993" }, { "size": "10615.2", "price": "0.992" }, { "size": "3184.56", "price": "0.991" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.99" }, { "size": "144", "price": "0.988" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.987" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.976" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.974" }, { "size": "770", "price": "0.971" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.967" }, { "size": "152.26", "price": "0.963" }, { "size": "887.2", "price": "0.962" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29", "price": "0.001" }, { "size": "7500", "price": "0.002" }, { "size": "10007.11", "price": "0.003" }, { "size": "5000", "price": "0.004" }, { "size": "2500", "price": "0.006" }, { "size": "9.52", "price": "0.007" }, { "size": "74505", "price": "0.01" }, { "size": "6112.31", "price": "0.011" }, { "size": "32749.99", "price": "0.02" }, { "size": "7663.71", "price": "0.021" }, { "size": "17500", "price": "0.03" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.031" }, { "size": "15537.5", "price": "0.04" }, { "size": "8670", "price": "0.05" }, { "size": "6.46", "price": "0.051" }, { "size": "6666.67", "price": "0.06" }, { "size": "3928.57", "price": "0.07" }, { "size": "14800", "price": "0.071" }, { "size": "4062.5", "price": "0.08" }, { "size": "666.67", "price": "0.09" }, { "size": "4500", "price": "0.1" }, { "size": "1923.08", "price": "0.13" }, { "size": "14400", "price": "0.131" }, { "size": "4320", "price": "0.132" }, { "size": "3070", "price": "0.14" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.141" }, { "size": "1250", "price": "0.16" }, { "size": "5.08", "price": "0.163" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.164" }, { "size": "495", "price": "0.181" }, { "size": "152", "price": "0.182" }, { "size": "154.05", "price": "0.325" }, { "size": "126.12", "price": "0.333" }, { "size": "1763", "price": "0.341" }, { "size": "528.9", "price": "0.342" }, { "size": "400", "price": "0.35" }, { "size": "5.05", "price": "0.4" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.423" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.458" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.489" }, { "size": "70.28", "price": "0.498" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.526" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.602" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.618" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.632" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.652" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.662" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.692" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.722" }, { "size": "2000", "price": "0.739" }, { "size": "600", "price": "0.74" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.752" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.772" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.779" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.782" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.783" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.785" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.795" }, { "size": "1008.32", "price": "0.801" }, { "size": "302.49", "price": "0.802" }, { "size": "1685", "price": "0.803" }, { "size": "96", "price": "0.811" }, { "size": "72", "price": "0.821" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.822" }, { "size": "97", "price": "0.831" }, { "size": "95", "price": "0.835" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.838" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.841" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.848" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.849" }, { "size": "105", "price": "0.851" }, { "size": "10", "price": "0.853" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.854" }, { "size": "350.8", "price": "0.88" }, { "size": "11.32", "price": "0.883" }, { "size": "156", "price": "0.897" }, { "size": "5.99", "price": "0.91" }, { "size": "500", "price": "0.932" }, { "size": "113", "price": "0.936" }, { "size": "22.13", "price": "0.939" }, { "size": "161.48", "price": "0.941" }, { "size": "100.1", "price": "0.943" }, { "size": "52", "price": "0.944" }, { "size": "31.61", "price": "0.951" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.956" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.957" } ], "hash": "79af6b7163a4136e556054d7cf13f97f5a1c1349", "market": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "asset_id": "74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003", "neg_risk": true, "tick_size": "0.001", "timestamp": "1782727689102", "min_order_size": "5", "last_trade_price": "0.038" }, "asks": [ { "size": "15534.00000000", "price": "0.99900000" }, { "size": "9513.20000000", "price": "0.99800000" }, { "size": "1000.00000000", "price": "0.99700000" }, { "size": "401.00000000", "price": "0.99600000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.99300000" }, { "size": "10615.20000000", "price": "0.99200000" }, { "size": "3184.56000000", "price": "0.99100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.99000000" }, { "size": "144.00000000", "price": "0.98800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.98700000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.97600000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.97400000" }, { "size": "770.00000000", "price": "0.97100000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.96700000" }, { "size": "152.26000000", "price": "0.96300000" }, { "size": "887.20000000", "price": "0.96200000" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29000000", "price": "0.00100000" }, { "size": "7500.00000000", "price": "0.00200000" }, { "size": "10007.11000000", "price": "0.00300000" }, { "size": "5000.00000000", "price": "0.00400000" }, { "size": "2500.00000000", "price": "0.00600000" }, { "size": "9.52000000", "price": "0.00700000" }, { "size": "74505.00000000", "price": "0.01000000" }, { "size": "6112.31000000", "price": "0.01100000" }, { "size": "32749.99000000", "price": "0.02000000" }, { "size": "7663.71000000", "price": "0.02100000" }, { "size": "17500.00000000", "price": "0.03000000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.03100000" }, { "size": "15537.50000000", "price": "0.04000000" }, { "size": "8670.00000000", "price": "0.05000000" }, { "size": "6.46000000", "price": "0.05100000" }, { "size": "6666.67000000", "price": "0.06000000" }, { "size": "3928.57000000", "price": "0.07000000" }, { "size": "14800.00000000", "price": "0.07100000" }, { "size": "4062.50000000", "price": "0.08000000" }, { "size": "666.67000000", "price": "0.09000000" }, { "size": "4500.00000000", "price": "0.10000000" }, { "size": "1923.08000000", "price": "0.13000000" }, { "size": "14400.00000000", "price": "0.13100000" }, { "size": "4320.00000000", "price": "0.13200000" }, { "size": "3070.00000000", "price": "0.14000000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.14100000" }, { "size": "1250.00000000", "price": "0.16000000" }, { "size": "5.08000000", "price": "0.16300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.16400000" }, { "size": "495.00000000", "price": "0.18100000" }, { "size": "152.00000000", "price": "0.18200000" }, { "size": "154.05000000", "price": "0.32500000" }, { "size": "126.12000000", "price": "0.33300000" }, { "size": "1763.00000000", "price": "0.34100000" }, { "size": "528.90000000", "price": "0.34200000" }, { "size": "400.00000000", "price": "0.35000000" }, { "size": "5.05000000", "price": "0.40000000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.42300000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.45800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.48900000" }, { "size": "70.28000000", "price": "0.49800000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.52600000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.60200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.61800000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.63200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.65200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.66200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.69200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.72200000" }, { "size": "2000.00000000", "price": "0.73900000" }, { "size": "600.00000000", "price": "0.74000000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.75200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.77200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.77900000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.78200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.78300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.78500000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.79500000" }, { "size": "1008.32000000", "price": "0.80100000" }, { "size": "302.49000000", "price": "0.80200000" }, { "size": "1685.00000000", "price": "0.80300000" }, { "size": "96.00000000", "price": "0.81100000" }, { "size": "72.00000000", "price": "0.82100000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.82200000" }, { "size": "97.00000000", "price": "0.83100000" }, { "size": "95.00000000", "price": "0.83500000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.83800000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.84100000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.84800000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.84900000" }, { "size": "105.00000000", "price": "0.85100000" }, { "size": "10.00000000", "price": "0.85300000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.85400000" }, { "size": "350.80000000", "price": "0.88000000" }, { "size": "11.32000000", "price": "0.88300000" }, { "size": "156.00000000", "price": "0.89700000" }, { "size": "5.99000000", "price": "0.91000000" }, { "size": "500.00000000", "price": "0.93200000" }, { "size": "113.00000000", "price": "0.93600000" }, { "size": "22.13000000", "price": "0.93900000" }, { "size": "161.48000000", "price": "0.94100000" }, { "size": "100.10000000", "price": "0.94300000" }, { "size": "52.00000000", "price": "0.94400000" }, { "size": "31.61000000", "price": "0.95100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.95600000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.95700000" } ], "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.102Z" }, "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "externalId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "sourceMarket": { "id": "608364", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "ready": false, "active": true, "closed": false, "events": [ { "id": "48292", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "title": "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap", "active": true, "closed": false, "series": [ { "id": "11110", "icon": "", "slug": "openai-ipo", "image": "", "title": "OpenAI IPO", "active": true, "closed": false, "ticker": "openai-ipo", "volume": 1962707.211191001, "archived": false, "createdAt": "2026-02-03T19:08:05.347291Z", "liquidity": 177284.64411, "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:06:06.149571Z", "recurrence": "annual", "seriesType": "single", "volume24hr": 2740.587337, "commentCount": 18, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "ticker": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "volume": 1917548.401532001, "endDate": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z", "negRisk": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:01.62756Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": 122697.17175, "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:55.736268Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:56.110408Z", "volume1mo": 205683.801175, "volume1wk": 26058.5214, "volume1yr": 1917548.401532002, "restricted": true, "seriesSlug": "openai-ipo", "volume24hr": 2671.467337, "competitive": 0.938945095185559, "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "commentCount": 0, "creationDate": "2025-09-23T00:29:27.839245Z", "gmpChartMode": "default", "openInterest": 71876.488969, "enableNegRisk": true, "estimateValue": false, "eventMetadata": { "context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:18:26.027Z", "context_description": "**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.", "context_requires_regen": true }, "liquidityClob": 122697.17175, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "showAllOutcomes": true, "negRiskAugmented": false, "resolutionSource": "", "showMarketImages": false, "cumulativeMarkets": false, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:16:44.730826Z", "automaticallyActive": true, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "funded": false, "spread": 0.005, "volume": "170103.9927840002", "bestAsk": 0.043, "bestBid": 0.038, "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "feeType": "finance_prices_fees", "negRisk": true, "umaBond": "500", "approved": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]", "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:04.541972Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": "18055.10714", "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:56.831364Z", "umaReward": "5", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:51.401903Z", "volume1mo": 19585.889451, "volume1wk": 2143.85648, "volume1yr": 170103.9927840001, "volumeNum": 170103.9927840002, "endDateIso": "2026-06-30", "questionID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf02", "resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d", "restricted": true, "rfqEnabled": false, "volume24hr": 119.8, "volumeClob": 170103.9927840002, "clobRewards": [ { "id": "35542", "endDate": "2500-12-31", "startDate": "2026-06-12", "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174", "rewardsAmount": 0, "rewardsDailyRate": 3 } ], "comboStatus": "disabled", "competitive": 0.8256682081204055, "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "feeSchedule": { "rate": 0.04, "exponent": 1, "takerOnly": true, "rebateRate": 0.25 }, "feesEnabled": true, "seriesColor": "", "clobTokenIds": "[\"86904220753614324927759730619985568200215013704321476651673438801320577270597\", \"74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003\"]", "liquidityNum": 18055.10714, "makerBaseFee": 1000, "negRiskOther": false, "orderMinSize": 5, "startDateIso": "2025-09-23", "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5", "takerBaseFee": 1000, "liquidityClob": 18055.10714, "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0405\", \"0.9595\"]", "showGmpSeries": false, "volume1moClob": 19585.889451, "volume1wkClob": 2143.85648, "volume1yrClob": 170103.9927840001, "customLiveness": 0, "groupItemTitle": "750B–1T", "lastTradePrice": 0.038, "rewardsMinSize": 100, "showGmpOutcome": false, "volume24hrClob": 119.8, "acceptingOrders": true, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "clearBookOnStart": true, "hasReviewedDates": true, "manualActivation": false, "negRiskRequestID": "0x02cfa83bf674f5c8de6c027f45d13c44287bb6a17a9b37b6a9d65dd6423ca58f", "resolutionSource": "", "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5, "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:18:08.062306Z", "groupItemThreshold": "2", "marketMakerAddress": "", "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0235, "automaticallyActive": true, "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035, "requiresTranslation": false, "holdingRewardsEnabled": false, "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001, "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]", "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:22:36Z", "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false }, "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "sourceOutcome": null, "resolutionTime": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z", "objectiveResolution": null, "visibleLiquidityUsd": "853.48640000", "clearResolutionRules": true, "estimatedFeePerShare": "0.00000000", "estimatedSlippagePerShare": "0.00000000" }, "dedupeKey": null, "seenCount": 1, "lastSeenAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.779Z", "foundAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.320Z", "expiresAt": "2026-06-29T10:10:09.150Z", "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.320Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.779Z" } }, "riskChecks": [ { "id": "cmqz21m66016cpa0jqefos2s5", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "result": "approved", "requestedSizeUsd": "10", "approvedSizeUsd": "10", "checks": [ { "code": "KILL_SWITCH_OFF", "name": "kill_switch", "facts": { "killSwitchEnabled": false }, "reason": "Global kill switch is off.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "STRATEGY_RUNNABLE", "name": "strategy_enabled", "facts": { "enabled": true, "lifecycle": "paper" }, "reason": "Strategy is enabled and runnable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MODE_ALLOWED", "name": "mode_allowed", "facts": { "decisionMode": "paper", "strategyMode": "paper", "liveTradingEnabled": false }, "reason": "Decision mode is allowed.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "ACTION_ALLOWED", "name": "action_allowed", "facts": { "action": "buy" }, "reason": "Decision action is executable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "DAILY_LOSS_BELOW_LIMIT", "name": "daily_loss", "facts": { "dailyLossUsd": "0.00000000", "globalDailyLossLimitUsd": "100.00000000" }, "reason": "Daily loss is below the cap.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "75.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "55.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Global open exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_STRATEGY_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_strategy_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "50.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "30.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Strategy exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_MARKET_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_market_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "15.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "15.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Market exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_POSITION_SIZE_OK", "name": "max_position_size", "facts": { "limit": "10.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "10.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Position size limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MARKET_DATA_FRESH", "name": "stale_data", "facts": { "marketAgeSeconds": -1, "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30 }, "reason": "Market data is fresh.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NO_DUPLICATE_DECISION", "name": "duplicate_decision", "facts": { "duplicateDecision": false }, "reason": "No recent similar order exists.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NET_EV_OK", "name": "min_ev", "facts": { "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "estimatedNetEvUsd": "0.23908524" }, "reason": "Net expected value passes risk threshold.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "PRICE_WITHIN_MAX", "name": "max_price", "facts": { "maxPrice": "0.98500000", "limitPrice": "0.96200000" }, "reason": "Limit price is within configured maximum.", "status": "pass" } ], "rejectionCode": null, "rejectionReason": null, "blockingReasons": null, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.629Z" } ], "order": { "id": "cmqz21m8g016fpa0jbxc2gaex", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "adapter": "polymarket", "externalOrderId": null, "mode": "paper", "status": "filled", "side": "buy", "outcome": "No", "orderType": "limit", "limitPrice": "0.962", "requestedSize": "10", "filledSize": "10.3950104", "avgFillPrice": "0.962", "feeUsd": "0", "idempotencyKey": "859cf8aab9f483633f9b4b88f36a9e1a7addda8b97b2738081ec4699dae1d3a4", "intentCreatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.712Z", "submissionAttempts": 0, "lastSubmissionError": null, "haltedReason": null, "marketSnapshotId": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "rawSnapshotId": null, "raw": { "fillAssumption": "buy fills when best ask is at or below limit; mark uses best bid", "unfilledReason": null }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.712Z", "submittedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.150Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.712Z", "expiresAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.462Z", "decision": { "id": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "strategyParameterHash": "130caed525ca4ad827a68dc0463fdae9ec3e1d04b8a3463b8e97034b5deb1970", "opportunityId": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "action": "buy", "status": "executed", "mode": "paper", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "outcome": "No", "requestedSizeUsd": "10", "approvedSizeUsd": "10", "limitPrice": "0.962", "confidence": "0.985", "estimatedNetEv": "0.23908524", "rationale": "Buy No at 0.96200000 with confidence 0.98500000 and net EV 0.23908524.", "whyNow": "polymarket market data is fresh, liquid enough, within configured price range, and passes strategy EV filters.", "reasonCode": null, "resolvedConfigSnapshot": { "mode": "paper", "priceMax": "0.98500000", "priceMin": "0.94000000", "maxSpread": "0.02000000", "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "minConfidence": "0.98500000", "minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000", "minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000", "orderTtlSeconds": 120, "allowFakeMarkets": false, "exitEarlyEnabled": false, "marketDataSource": "polymarket", "maxPositionSizeUsd": "10.00000000", "maxMarketExposureUsd": "15.00000000", "maxStrategyExposureUsd": "50.00000000", "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30, "maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168, "allowSubjectiveCategories": false }, "configSnapshotHash": "130caed525ca4ad827a68dc0463fdae9ec3e1d04b8a3463b8e97034b5deb1970", "marketSnapshotId": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "rawSnapshotId": null, "replayStatus": "complete", "missingReplayDataReason": null, "inputs": { "market": { "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "rules": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "adapter": "polymarket", "bestAsk": "0.96200000", "bestBid": "0.95700000", "midPrice": "0.95950000", "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "orderBook": { "raw": { "asks": [ { "size": "15534", "price": "0.999" }, { "size": "9513.2", "price": "0.998" }, { "size": "1000", "price": "0.997" }, { "size": "401", "price": "0.996" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.993" }, { "size": "10615.2", "price": "0.992" }, { "size": "3184.56", "price": "0.991" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.99" }, { "size": "144", "price": "0.988" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.987" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.976" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.974" }, { "size": "770", "price": "0.971" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.967" }, { "size": "152.26", "price": "0.963" }, { "size": "887.2", "price": "0.962" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29", "price": "0.001" }, { "size": "7500", "price": "0.002" }, { "size": "10007.11", "price": "0.003" }, { "size": "5000", "price": "0.004" }, { "size": "2500", "price": "0.006" }, { "size": "9.52", "price": "0.007" }, { "size": "74505", "price": "0.01" }, { "size": "6112.31", "price": "0.011" }, { "size": "32749.99", "price": "0.02" }, { "size": "7663.71", "price": "0.021" }, { "size": "17500", "price": "0.03" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.031" }, { "size": "15537.5", "price": "0.04" }, { "size": "8670", "price": "0.05" }, { "size": "6.46", "price": "0.051" }, { "size": "6666.67", "price": "0.06" }, { "size": "3928.57", "price": "0.07" }, { "size": "14800", "price": "0.071" }, { "size": "4062.5", "price": "0.08" }, { "size": "666.67", "price": "0.09" }, { "size": "4500", "price": "0.1" }, { "size": "1923.08", "price": "0.13" }, { "size": "14400", "price": "0.131" }, { "size": "4320", "price": "0.132" }, { "size": "3070", "price": "0.14" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.141" }, { "size": "1250", "price": "0.16" }, { "size": "5.08", "price": "0.163" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.164" }, { "size": "495", "price": "0.181" }, { "size": "152", "price": "0.182" }, { "size": "154.05", "price": "0.325" }, { "size": "126.12", "price": "0.333" }, { "size": "1763", "price": "0.341" }, { "size": "528.9", "price": "0.342" }, { "size": "400", "price": "0.35" }, { "size": "5.05", "price": "0.4" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.423" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.458" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.489" }, { "size": "70.28", "price": "0.498" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.526" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.602" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.618" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.632" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.652" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.662" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.692" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.722" }, { "size": "2000", "price": "0.739" }, { "size": "600", "price": "0.74" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.752" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.772" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.779" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.782" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.783" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.785" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.795" }, { "size": "1008.32", "price": "0.801" }, { "size": "302.49", "price": "0.802" }, { "size": "1685", "price": "0.803" }, { "size": "96", "price": "0.811" }, { "size": "72", "price": "0.821" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.822" }, { "size": "97", "price": "0.831" }, { "size": "95", "price": "0.835" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.838" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.841" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.848" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.849" }, { "size": "105", "price": "0.851" }, { "size": "10", "price": "0.853" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.854" }, { "size": "350.8", "price": "0.88" }, { "size": "11.32", "price": "0.883" }, { "size": "156", "price": "0.897" }, { "size": "5.99", "price": "0.91" }, { "size": "500", "price": "0.932" }, { "size": "113", "price": "0.936" }, { "size": "22.13", "price": "0.939" }, { "size": "161.48", "price": "0.941" }, { "size": "100.1", "price": "0.943" }, { "size": "52", "price": "0.944" }, { "size": "31.61", "price": "0.951" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.956" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.957" } ], "hash": "79af6b7163a4136e556054d7cf13f97f5a1c1349", "market": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "asset_id": "74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003", "neg_risk": true, "tick_size": "0.001", "timestamp": "1782727689102", "min_order_size": "5", "last_trade_price": "0.038" }, "asks": [ { "size": "15534.00000000", "price": "0.99900000" }, { "size": "9513.20000000", "price": "0.99800000" }, { "size": "1000.00000000", "price": "0.99700000" }, { "size": "401.00000000", "price": "0.99600000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.99300000" }, { "size": "10615.20000000", "price": "0.99200000" }, { "size": "3184.56000000", "price": "0.99100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.99000000" }, { "size": "144.00000000", "price": "0.98800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.98700000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.97600000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.97400000" }, { "size": "770.00000000", "price": "0.97100000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.96700000" }, { "size": "152.26000000", "price": "0.96300000" }, { "size": "887.20000000", "price": "0.96200000" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29000000", "price": "0.00100000" }, { "size": "7500.00000000", "price": "0.00200000" }, { "size": "10007.11000000", "price": "0.00300000" }, { "size": "5000.00000000", "price": "0.00400000" }, { "size": "2500.00000000", "price": "0.00600000" }, { "size": "9.52000000", "price": "0.00700000" }, { "size": "74505.00000000", "price": "0.01000000" }, { "size": "6112.31000000", "price": "0.01100000" }, { "size": "32749.99000000", "price": "0.02000000" }, { "size": "7663.71000000", "price": "0.02100000" }, { "size": "17500.00000000", "price": "0.03000000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.03100000" }, { "size": "15537.50000000", "price": "0.04000000" }, { "size": "8670.00000000", "price": "0.05000000" }, { "size": "6.46000000", "price": "0.05100000" }, { "size": "6666.67000000", "price": "0.06000000" }, { "size": "3928.57000000", "price": "0.07000000" }, { "size": "14800.00000000", "price": "0.07100000" }, { "size": "4062.50000000", "price": "0.08000000" }, { "size": "666.67000000", "price": "0.09000000" }, { "size": "4500.00000000", "price": "0.10000000" }, { "size": "1923.08000000", "price": "0.13000000" }, { "size": "14400.00000000", "price": "0.13100000" }, { "size": "4320.00000000", "price": "0.13200000" }, { "size": "3070.00000000", "price": "0.14000000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.14100000" }, { "size": "1250.00000000", "price": "0.16000000" }, { "size": "5.08000000", "price": "0.16300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.16400000" }, { "size": "495.00000000", "price": "0.18100000" }, { "size": "152.00000000", "price": "0.18200000" }, { "size": "154.05000000", "price": "0.32500000" }, { "size": "126.12000000", "price": "0.33300000" }, { "size": "1763.00000000", "price": "0.34100000" }, { "size": "528.90000000", "price": "0.34200000" }, { "size": "400.00000000", "price": "0.35000000" }, { "size": "5.05000000", "price": "0.40000000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.42300000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.45800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.48900000" }, { "size": "70.28000000", "price": "0.49800000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.52600000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.60200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.61800000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.63200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.65200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.66200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.69200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.72200000" }, { "size": "2000.00000000", "price": "0.73900000" }, { "size": "600.00000000", "price": "0.74000000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.75200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.77200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.77900000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.78200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.78300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.78500000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.79500000" }, { "size": "1008.32000000", "price": "0.80100000" }, { "size": "302.49000000", "price": "0.80200000" }, { "size": "1685.00000000", "price": "0.80300000" }, { "size": "96.00000000", "price": "0.81100000" }, { "size": "72.00000000", "price": "0.82100000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.82200000" }, { "size": "97.00000000", "price": "0.83100000" }, { "size": "95.00000000", "price": "0.83500000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.83800000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.84100000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.84800000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.84900000" }, { "size": "105.00000000", "price": "0.85100000" }, { "size": "10.00000000", "price": "0.85300000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.85400000" }, { "size": "350.80000000", "price": "0.88000000" }, { "size": "11.32000000", "price": "0.88300000" }, { "size": "156.00000000", "price": "0.89700000" }, { "size": "5.99000000", "price": "0.91000000" }, { "size": "500.00000000", "price": "0.93200000" }, { "size": "113.00000000", "price": "0.93600000" }, { "size": "22.13000000", "price": "0.93900000" }, { "size": "161.48000000", "price": "0.94100000" }, { "size": "100.10000000", "price": "0.94300000" }, { "size": "52.00000000", "price": "0.94400000" }, { "size": "31.61000000", "price": "0.95100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.95600000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.95700000" } ], "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.102Z" }, "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "externalId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "sourceMarket": { "id": "608364", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "ready": false, "active": true, "closed": false, "events": [ { "id": "48292", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "title": "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap", "active": true, "closed": false, "series": [ { "id": "11110", "icon": "", "slug": "openai-ipo", "image": "", "title": "OpenAI IPO", "active": true, "closed": false, "ticker": "openai-ipo", "volume": 1962707.211191001, "archived": false, "createdAt": "2026-02-03T19:08:05.347291Z", "liquidity": 177284.64411, "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:06:06.149571Z", "recurrence": "annual", "seriesType": "single", "volume24hr": 2740.587337, "commentCount": 18, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "ticker": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "volume": 1917548.401532001, "endDate": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z", "negRisk": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:01.62756Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": 122697.17175, "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:55.736268Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:56.110408Z", "volume1mo": 205683.801175, "volume1wk": 26058.5214, "volume1yr": 1917548.401532002, "restricted": true, "seriesSlug": "openai-ipo", "volume24hr": 2671.467337, "competitive": 0.938945095185559, "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "commentCount": 0, "creationDate": "2025-09-23T00:29:27.839245Z", "gmpChartMode": "default", "openInterest": 71876.488969, "enableNegRisk": true, "estimateValue": false, "eventMetadata": { "context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:18:26.027Z", "context_description": "**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.", "context_requires_regen": true }, "liquidityClob": 122697.17175, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "showAllOutcomes": true, "negRiskAugmented": false, "resolutionSource": "", "showMarketImages": false, "cumulativeMarkets": false, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:16:44.730826Z", "automaticallyActive": true, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "funded": false, "spread": 0.005, "volume": "170103.9927840002", "bestAsk": 0.043, "bestBid": 0.038, "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "feeType": "finance_prices_fees", "negRisk": true, "umaBond": "500", "approved": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]", "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:04.541972Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": "18055.10714", "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:56.831364Z", "umaReward": "5", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:51.401903Z", "volume1mo": 19585.889451, "volume1wk": 2143.85648, "volume1yr": 170103.9927840001, "volumeNum": 170103.9927840002, "endDateIso": "2026-06-30", "questionID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf02", "resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d", "restricted": true, "rfqEnabled": false, "volume24hr": 119.8, "volumeClob": 170103.9927840002, "clobRewards": [ { "id": "35542", "endDate": "2500-12-31", "startDate": "2026-06-12", "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174", "rewardsAmount": 0, "rewardsDailyRate": 3 } ], "comboStatus": "disabled", "competitive": 0.8256682081204055, "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "feeSchedule": { "rate": 0.04, "exponent": 1, "takerOnly": true, "rebateRate": 0.25 }, "feesEnabled": true, "seriesColor": "", "clobTokenIds": "[\"86904220753614324927759730619985568200215013704321476651673438801320577270597\", \"74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003\"]", "liquidityNum": 18055.10714, "makerBaseFee": 1000, "negRiskOther": false, "orderMinSize": 5, "startDateIso": "2025-09-23", "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5", "takerBaseFee": 1000, "liquidityClob": 18055.10714, "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0405\", \"0.9595\"]", "showGmpSeries": false, "volume1moClob": 19585.889451, "volume1wkClob": 2143.85648, "volume1yrClob": 170103.9927840001, "customLiveness": 0, "groupItemTitle": "750B–1T", "lastTradePrice": 0.038, "rewardsMinSize": 100, "showGmpOutcome": false, "volume24hrClob": 119.8, "acceptingOrders": true, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "clearBookOnStart": true, "hasReviewedDates": true, "manualActivation": false, "negRiskRequestID": "0x02cfa83bf674f5c8de6c027f45d13c44287bb6a17a9b37b6a9d65dd6423ca58f", "resolutionSource": "", "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5, "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:18:08.062306Z", "groupItemThreshold": "2", "marketMakerAddress": "", "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0235, "automaticallyActive": true, "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035, "requiresTranslation": false, "holdingRewardsEnabled": false, "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001, "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]", "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:22:36Z", "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false }, "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "resolutionTime": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z", "visibleLiquidityUsd": "853.48640000", "clearResolutionRules": true, "estimatedFeePerShare": "0.00000000", "estimatedSlippagePerShare": "0.00000000" }, "adapter": "polymarket", "opportunityFeatures": { "price": "0.96200000", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "source": "polymarket", "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "outcome": "No", "confidence": "0.98500000", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "dataAgeSeconds": -1, "confidenceSource": "configured_min_confidence_floor_for_phase_3_paper_mode", "hoursToResolution": 13.864125, "objectiveResolution": null, "clearResolutionRules": true } }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.462Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.767Z", "riskChecks": [ { "id": "cmqz21m66016cpa0jqefos2s5", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "result": "approved", "requestedSizeUsd": "10", "approvedSizeUsd": "10", "checks": [ { "code": "KILL_SWITCH_OFF", "name": "kill_switch", "facts": { "killSwitchEnabled": false }, "reason": "Global kill switch is off.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "STRATEGY_RUNNABLE", "name": "strategy_enabled", "facts": { "enabled": true, "lifecycle": "paper" }, "reason": "Strategy is enabled and runnable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MODE_ALLOWED", "name": "mode_allowed", "facts": { "decisionMode": "paper", "strategyMode": "paper", "liveTradingEnabled": false }, "reason": "Decision mode is allowed.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "ACTION_ALLOWED", "name": "action_allowed", "facts": { "action": "buy" }, "reason": "Decision action is executable.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "DAILY_LOSS_BELOW_LIMIT", "name": "daily_loss", "facts": { "dailyLossUsd": "0.00000000", "globalDailyLossLimitUsd": "100.00000000" }, "reason": "Daily loss is below the cap.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "75.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "55.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Global open exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_STRATEGY_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_strategy_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "50.00000000", "current": "20.00000000", "remaining": "30.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Strategy exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_MARKET_EXPOSURE_OK", "name": "max_market_exposure", "facts": { "limit": "15.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "15.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Market exposure limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MAX_POSITION_SIZE_OK", "name": "max_position_size", "facts": { "limit": "10.00000000", "current": "0.00000000", "remaining": "10.00000000", "requested": "10.00000000" }, "reason": "Position size limit allows requested size.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "MARKET_DATA_FRESH", "name": "stale_data", "facts": { "marketAgeSeconds": -1, "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30 }, "reason": "Market data is fresh.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NO_DUPLICATE_DECISION", "name": "duplicate_decision", "facts": { "duplicateDecision": false }, "reason": "No recent similar order exists.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "NET_EV_OK", "name": "min_ev", "facts": { "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "estimatedNetEvUsd": "0.23908524" }, "reason": "Net expected value passes risk threshold.", "status": "pass" }, { "code": "PRICE_WITHIN_MAX", "name": "max_price", "facts": { "maxPrice": "0.98500000", "limitPrice": "0.96200000" }, "reason": "Limit price is within configured maximum.", "status": "pass" } ], "rejectionCode": null, "rejectionReason": null, "blockingReasons": null, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.629Z" } ], "opportunity": { "id": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "status": "decided", "side": "buy", "outcome": "No", "price": "0.962", "sizeUsd": "10", "estimatedGrossEv": "0.23908524", "estimatedNetEv": "0.23908524", "confidence": "0.985", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714", "spread": "0.005", "reason": null, "rejectionStage": null, "rejectionCode": null, "rejectionReason": null, "features": { "price": "0.96200000", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "source": "polymarket", "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "outcome": "No", "confidence": "0.98500000", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "dataAgeSeconds": -1, "confidenceSource": "configured_min_confidence_floor_for_phase_3_paper_mode", "hoursToResolution": 13.864125, "objectiveResolution": null, "clearResolutionRules": true }, "configSnapshot": { "mode": "paper", "priceMax": "0.98500000", "priceMin": "0.94000000", "maxSpread": "0.02000000", "minNetEvUsd": "0.01000000", "minConfidence": "0.98500000", "minLiquidityUsd": "500.00000000", "minVolume24hUsd": "100.00000000", "orderTtlSeconds": 120, "allowFakeMarkets": false, "exitEarlyEnabled": false, "marketDataSource": "polymarket", "killSwitchEnabled": false, "maxOpenExposureUsd": "75.00000000", "maxPositionSizeUsd": "10.00000000", "polymarket.baseUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com", "polymarket.enabled": true, "maxMarketExposureUsd": "15.00000000", "polymarket.timeoutMs": 5000, "polymarket.maxRetries": 2, "maxStrategyExposureUsd": "50.00000000", "globalDailyLossLimitUsd": "100.00000000", "maxMarketDataAgeSeconds": 30, "maxTimeToResolutionHours": 168, "allowSubjectiveCategories": false, "polymarket.rateLimitBackoffMs": 1000 }, "configSnapshotHash": "409189b16451befd54211ba6e5f3b87ff4ff4b54b688cc7905871ceaff8bff55", "marketSnapshotId": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "rawSnapshotId": null, "raw": { "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "rules": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "title": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "binary": true, "spread": "0.00500000", "status": "active", "adapter": "polymarket", "bestAsk": "0.96200000", "bestBid": "0.95700000", "category": null, "midPrice": "0.95950000", "outcomes": [ "Yes", "No" ], "orderBook": { "raw": { "asks": [ { "size": "15534", "price": "0.999" }, { "size": "9513.2", "price": "0.998" }, { "size": "1000", "price": "0.997" }, { "size": "401", "price": "0.996" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.993" }, { "size": "10615.2", "price": "0.992" }, { "size": "3184.56", "price": "0.991" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.99" }, { "size": "144", "price": "0.988" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.987" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.976" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.974" }, { "size": "770", "price": "0.971" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.967" }, { "size": "152.26", "price": "0.963" }, { "size": "887.2", "price": "0.962" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29", "price": "0.001" }, { "size": "7500", "price": "0.002" }, { "size": "10007.11", "price": "0.003" }, { "size": "5000", "price": "0.004" }, { "size": "2500", "price": "0.006" }, { "size": "9.52", "price": "0.007" }, { "size": "74505", "price": "0.01" }, { "size": "6112.31", "price": "0.011" }, { "size": "32749.99", "price": "0.02" }, { "size": "7663.71", "price": "0.021" }, { "size": "17500", "price": "0.03" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.031" }, { "size": "15537.5", "price": "0.04" }, { "size": "8670", "price": "0.05" }, { "size": "6.46", "price": "0.051" }, { "size": "6666.67", "price": "0.06" }, { "size": "3928.57", "price": "0.07" }, { "size": "14800", "price": "0.071" }, { "size": "4062.5", "price": "0.08" }, { "size": "666.67", "price": "0.09" }, { "size": "4500", "price": "0.1" }, { "size": "1923.08", "price": "0.13" }, { "size": "14400", "price": "0.131" }, { "size": "4320", "price": "0.132" }, { "size": "3070", "price": "0.14" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.141" }, { "size": "1250", "price": "0.16" }, { "size": "5.08", "price": "0.163" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.164" }, { "size": "495", "price": "0.181" }, { "size": "152", "price": "0.182" }, { "size": "154.05", "price": "0.325" }, { "size": "126.12", "price": "0.333" }, { "size": "1763", "price": "0.341" }, { "size": "528.9", "price": "0.342" }, { "size": "400", "price": "0.35" }, { "size": "5.05", "price": "0.4" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.423" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.458" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.489" }, { "size": "70.28", "price": "0.498" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.526" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.602" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.618" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.632" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.652" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.662" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.692" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.722" }, { "size": "2000", "price": "0.739" }, { "size": "600", "price": "0.74" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.752" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.772" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.779" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.782" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.783" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.785" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.795" }, { "size": "1008.32", "price": "0.801" }, { "size": "302.49", "price": "0.802" }, { "size": "1685", "price": "0.803" }, { "size": "96", "price": "0.811" }, { "size": "72", "price": "0.821" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.822" }, { "size": "97", "price": "0.831" }, { "size": "95", "price": "0.835" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.838" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.841" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.848" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.849" }, { "size": "105", "price": "0.851" }, { "size": "10", "price": "0.853" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.854" }, { "size": "350.8", "price": "0.88" }, { "size": "11.32", "price": "0.883" }, { "size": "156", "price": "0.897" }, { "size": "5.99", "price": "0.91" }, { "size": "500", "price": "0.932" }, { "size": "113", "price": "0.936" }, { "size": "22.13", "price": "0.939" }, { "size": "161.48", "price": "0.941" }, { "size": "100.1", "price": "0.943" }, { "size": "52", "price": "0.944" }, { "size": "31.61", "price": "0.951" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.956" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.957" } ], "hash": "79af6b7163a4136e556054d7cf13f97f5a1c1349", "market": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "asset_id": "74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003", "neg_risk": true, "tick_size": "0.001", "timestamp": "1782727689102", "min_order_size": "5", "last_trade_price": "0.038" }, "asks": [ { "size": "15534.00000000", "price": "0.99900000" }, { "size": "9513.20000000", "price": "0.99800000" }, { "size": "1000.00000000", "price": "0.99700000" }, { "size": "401.00000000", "price": "0.99600000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.99300000" }, { "size": "10615.20000000", "price": "0.99200000" }, { "size": "3184.56000000", "price": "0.99100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.99000000" }, { "size": "144.00000000", "price": "0.98800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.98700000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.97600000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.97400000" }, { "size": "770.00000000", "price": "0.97100000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.96700000" }, { "size": "152.26000000", "price": "0.96300000" }, { "size": "887.20000000", "price": "0.96200000" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29000000", "price": "0.00100000" }, { "size": "7500.00000000", "price": "0.00200000" }, { "size": "10007.11000000", "price": "0.00300000" }, { "size": "5000.00000000", "price": "0.00400000" }, { "size": "2500.00000000", "price": "0.00600000" }, { "size": "9.52000000", "price": "0.00700000" }, { "size": "74505.00000000", "price": "0.01000000" }, { "size": "6112.31000000", "price": "0.01100000" }, { "size": "32749.99000000", "price": "0.02000000" }, { "size": "7663.71000000", "price": "0.02100000" }, { "size": "17500.00000000", "price": "0.03000000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.03100000" }, { "size": "15537.50000000", "price": "0.04000000" }, { "size": "8670.00000000", "price": "0.05000000" }, { "size": "6.46000000", "price": "0.05100000" }, { "size": "6666.67000000", "price": "0.06000000" }, { "size": "3928.57000000", "price": "0.07000000" }, { "size": "14800.00000000", "price": "0.07100000" }, { "size": "4062.50000000", "price": "0.08000000" }, { "size": "666.67000000", "price": "0.09000000" }, { "size": "4500.00000000", "price": "0.10000000" }, { "size": "1923.08000000", "price": "0.13000000" }, { "size": "14400.00000000", "price": "0.13100000" }, { "size": "4320.00000000", "price": "0.13200000" }, { "size": "3070.00000000", "price": "0.14000000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.14100000" }, { "size": "1250.00000000", "price": "0.16000000" }, { "size": "5.08000000", "price": "0.16300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.16400000" }, { "size": "495.00000000", "price": "0.18100000" }, { "size": "152.00000000", "price": "0.18200000" }, { "size": "154.05000000", "price": "0.32500000" }, { "size": "126.12000000", "price": "0.33300000" }, { "size": "1763.00000000", "price": "0.34100000" }, { "size": "528.90000000", "price": "0.34200000" }, { "size": "400.00000000", "price": "0.35000000" }, { "size": "5.05000000", "price": "0.40000000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.42300000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.45800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.48900000" }, { "size": "70.28000000", "price": "0.49800000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.52600000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.60200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.61800000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.63200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.65200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.66200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.69200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.72200000" }, { "size": "2000.00000000", "price": "0.73900000" }, { "size": "600.00000000", "price": "0.74000000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.75200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.77200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.77900000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.78200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.78300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.78500000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.79500000" }, { "size": "1008.32000000", "price": "0.80100000" }, { "size": "302.49000000", "price": "0.80200000" }, { "size": "1685.00000000", "price": "0.80300000" }, { "size": "96.00000000", "price": "0.81100000" }, { "size": "72.00000000", "price": "0.82100000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.82200000" }, { "size": "97.00000000", "price": "0.83100000" }, { "size": "95.00000000", "price": "0.83500000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.83800000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.84100000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.84800000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.84900000" }, { "size": "105.00000000", "price": "0.85100000" }, { "size": "10.00000000", "price": "0.85300000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.85400000" }, { "size": "350.80000000", "price": "0.88000000" }, { "size": "11.32000000", "price": "0.88300000" }, { "size": "156.00000000", "price": "0.89700000" }, { "size": "5.99000000", "price": "0.91000000" }, { "size": "500.00000000", "price": "0.93200000" }, { "size": "113.00000000", "price": "0.93600000" }, { "size": "22.13000000", "price": "0.93900000" }, { "size": "161.48000000", "price": "0.94100000" }, { "size": "100.10000000", "price": "0.94300000" }, { "size": "52.00000000", "price": "0.94400000" }, { "size": "31.61000000", "price": "0.95100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.95600000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.95700000" } ], "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.102Z" }, "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "externalId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714000", "sourceMarket": { "id": "608364", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "will-openais-market-cap-be-between-750b-and-1t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "ready": false, "active": true, "closed": false, "events": [ { "id": "48292", "new": false, "cyom": false, "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-RiLs850YpL5k.png", "title": "OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap", "active": true, "closed": false, "series": [ { "id": "11110", "icon": "", "slug": "openai-ipo", "image": "", "title": "OpenAI IPO", "active": true, "closed": false, "ticker": "openai-ipo", "volume": 1962707.211191001, "archived": false, "createdAt": "2026-02-03T19:08:05.347291Z", "liquidity": 177284.64411, "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:06:06.149571Z", "recurrence": "annual", "seriesType": "single", "volume24hr": 2740.587337, "commentCount": 18, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "ticker": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap", "volume": 1917548.401532001, "endDate": "2026-12-31T23:55:00Z", "negRisk": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:01.62756Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": 122697.17175, "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:55.736268Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:56.110408Z", "volume1mo": 205683.801175, "volume1wk": 26058.5214, "volume1yr": 1917548.401532002, "restricted": true, "seriesSlug": "openai-ipo", "volume24hr": 2671.467337, "competitive": 0.938945095185559, "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "commentCount": 0, "creationDate": "2025-09-23T00:29:27.839245Z", "gmpChartMode": "default", "openInterest": 71876.488969, "enableNegRisk": true, "estimateValue": false, "eventMetadata": { "context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:18:26.027Z", "context_description": "**OpenAI’s recent confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on June 8, 2026, is the primary catalyst shaping market-implied odds.** Traders assign a 53.5% probability to no IPO by year-end 2026 because the company stated it “has not decided on timing yet” and prefers remaining private for certain initiatives, consistent with typical 60- to 90-day SEC review plus roadshow timelines that could push listing into 2027. The 21.1% probability on a $1T–1.25T close reflects OpenAI’s $852 billion post-money valuation from its March 2026 round and underwriter targets near $1 trillion, tempered by ongoing heavy losses and regulatory scrutiny. Competitive AI IPO activity, including Anthropic’s filing, and strong investor demand for large language model leaders support the smaller 13.9% chance of $1.5T+, while lower buckets capture downside risk from execution delays or valuation compression.", "context_requires_regen": true }, "liquidityClob": 122697.17175, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "showAllOutcomes": true, "negRiskAugmented": false, "resolutionSource": "", "showMarketImages": false, "cumulativeMarkets": false, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:16:44.730826Z", "automaticallyActive": true, "requiresTranslation": false } ], "funded": false, "spread": 0.005, "volume": "170103.9927840002", "bestAsk": 0.043, "bestBid": 0.038, "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z", "feeType": "finance_prices_fees", "negRisk": true, "umaBond": "500", "approved": true, "archived": false, "featured": false, "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]", "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?", "createdAt": "2025-09-22T19:20:04.541972Z", "deploying": false, "liquidity": "18055.10714", "startDate": "2025-09-23T00:22:56.831364Z", "umaReward": "5", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:05:51.401903Z", "volume1mo": 19585.889451, "volume1wk": 2143.85648, "volume1yr": 170103.9927840001, "volumeNum": 170103.9927840002, "endDateIso": "2026-06-30", "questionID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf02", "resolvedBy": "0x2F5e3684cb1F318ec51b00Edba38d79Ac2c0aA9d", "restricted": true, "rfqEnabled": false, "volume24hr": 119.8, "volumeClob": 170103.9927840002, "clobRewards": [ { "id": "35542", "endDate": "2500-12-31", "startDate": "2026-06-12", "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174", "rewardsAmount": 0, "rewardsDailyRate": 3 } ], "comboStatus": "disabled", "competitive": 0.8256682081204055, "conditionId": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2026\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.", "feeSchedule": { "rate": 0.04, "exponent": 1, "takerOnly": true, "rebateRate": 0.25 }, "feesEnabled": true, "seriesColor": "", "clobTokenIds": "[\"86904220753614324927759730619985568200215013704321476651673438801320577270597\", \"74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003\"]", "liquidityNum": 18055.10714, "makerBaseFee": 1000, "negRiskOther": false, "orderMinSize": 5, "startDateIso": "2025-09-23", "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5", "takerBaseFee": 1000, "liquidityClob": 18055.10714, "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0405\", \"0.9595\"]", "showGmpSeries": false, "volume1moClob": 19585.889451, "volume1wkClob": 2143.85648, "volume1yrClob": 170103.9927840001, "customLiveness": 0, "groupItemTitle": "750B–1T", "lastTradePrice": 0.038, "rewardsMinSize": 100, "showGmpOutcome": false, "volume24hrClob": 119.8, "acceptingOrders": true, "enableOrderBook": true, "negRiskMarketID": "0xd2c21cbb9d2cb407ab3dcf619d93f6d65b7967154cd6ee930f7758baa2b4bf00", "clearBookOnStart": true, "hasReviewedDates": true, "manualActivation": false, "negRiskRequestID": "0x02cfa83bf674f5c8de6c027f45d13c44287bb6a17a9b37b6a9d65dd6423ca58f", "resolutionSource": "", "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5, "oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015, "pendingDeployment": false, "deployingTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:18:08.062306Z", "groupItemThreshold": "2", "marketMakerAddress": "", "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0235, "automaticallyActive": true, "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035, "requiresTranslation": false, "holdingRewardsEnabled": false, "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001, "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]", "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-09-23T00:22:36Z", "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false }, "volume24hUsd": "119.80000000", "sourceOutcome": null, "resolutionTime": "2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z", "objectiveResolution": null, "visibleLiquidityUsd": "853.48640000", "clearResolutionRules": true, "estimatedFeePerShare": "0.00000000", "estimatedSlippagePerShare": "0.00000000" }, "dedupeKey": null, "seenCount": 1, "lastSeenAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.779Z", "foundAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.320Z", "expiresAt": "2026-06-29T10:10:09.150Z", "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.320Z", "updatedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.779Z" } } }, "marketSnapshot": { "id": "cmqz21lx70164pa0jljhicmqx", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "bestBid": "0.957", "bestAsk": "0.962", "midPrice": "0.9595", "spread": "0.005", "liquidityUsd": "18055.10714", "volume24hUsd": "119.8", "orderBook": { "bestAsk": "0.96200000", "bestBid": "0.95700000", "sourceOrderBook": { "raw": { "asks": [ { "size": "15534", "price": "0.999" }, { "size": "9513.2", "price": "0.998" }, { "size": "1000", "price": "0.997" }, { "size": "401", "price": "0.996" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.993" }, { "size": "10615.2", "price": "0.992" }, { "size": "3184.56", "price": "0.991" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.99" }, { "size": "144", "price": "0.988" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.987" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.976" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.974" }, { "size": "770", "price": "0.971" }, { "size": "45", "price": "0.967" }, { "size": "152.26", "price": "0.963" }, { "size": "887.2", "price": "0.962" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29", "price": "0.001" }, { "size": "7500", "price": "0.002" }, { "size": "10007.11", "price": "0.003" }, { "size": "5000", "price": "0.004" }, { "size": "2500", "price": "0.006" }, { "size": "9.52", "price": "0.007" }, { "size": "74505", "price": "0.01" }, { "size": "6112.31", "price": "0.011" }, { "size": "32749.99", "price": "0.02" }, { "size": "7663.71", "price": "0.021" }, { "size": "17500", "price": "0.03" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.031" }, { "size": "15537.5", "price": "0.04" }, { "size": "8670", "price": "0.05" }, { "size": "6.46", "price": "0.051" }, { "size": "6666.67", "price": "0.06" }, { "size": "3928.57", "price": "0.07" }, { "size": "14800", "price": "0.071" }, { "size": "4062.5", "price": "0.08" }, { "size": "666.67", "price": "0.09" }, { "size": "4500", "price": "0.1" }, { "size": "1923.08", "price": "0.13" }, { "size": "14400", "price": "0.131" }, { "size": "4320", "price": "0.132" }, { "size": "3070", "price": "0.14" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.141" }, { "size": "1250", "price": "0.16" }, { "size": "5.08", "price": "0.163" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.164" }, { "size": "495", "price": "0.181" }, { "size": "152", "price": "0.182" }, { "size": "154.05", "price": "0.325" }, { "size": "126.12", "price": "0.333" }, { "size": "1763", "price": "0.341" }, { "size": "528.9", "price": "0.342" }, { "size": "400", "price": "0.35" }, { "size": "5.05", "price": "0.4" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.423" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.458" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.489" }, { "size": "70.28", "price": "0.498" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.526" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.602" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.618" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.632" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.652" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.662" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.692" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.722" }, { "size": "2000", "price": "0.739" }, { "size": "600", "price": "0.74" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.752" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.772" }, { "size": "5.04", "price": "0.779" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.782" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.783" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.785" }, { "size": "200", "price": "0.795" }, { "size": "1008.32", "price": "0.801" }, { "size": "302.49", "price": "0.802" }, { "size": "1685", "price": "0.803" }, { "size": "96", "price": "0.811" }, { "size": "72", "price": "0.821" }, { "size": "50", "price": "0.822" }, { "size": "97", "price": "0.831" }, { "size": "95", "price": "0.835" }, { "size": "100", "price": "0.838" }, { "size": "20", "price": "0.841" }, { "size": "15", "price": "0.848" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.849" }, { "size": "105", "price": "0.851" }, { "size": "10", "price": "0.853" }, { "size": "30", "price": "0.854" }, { "size": "350.8", "price": "0.88" }, { "size": "11.32", "price": "0.883" }, { "size": "156", "price": "0.897" }, { "size": "5.99", "price": "0.91" }, { "size": "500", "price": "0.932" }, { "size": "113", "price": "0.936" }, { "size": "22.13", "price": "0.939" }, { "size": "161.48", "price": "0.941" }, { "size": "100.1", "price": "0.943" }, { "size": "52", "price": "0.944" }, { "size": "31.61", "price": "0.951" }, { "size": "5", "price": "0.956" }, { "size": "10.9", "price": "0.957" } ], "hash": "79af6b7163a4136e556054d7cf13f97f5a1c1349", "market": "0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "asset_id": "74987521271361072746264224488245891269775371028979674431826416209897741154003", "neg_risk": true, "tick_size": "0.001", "timestamp": "1782727689102", "min_order_size": "5", "last_trade_price": "0.038" }, "asks": [ { "size": "15534.00000000", "price": "0.99900000" }, { "size": "9513.20000000", "price": "0.99800000" }, { "size": "1000.00000000", "price": "0.99700000" }, { "size": "401.00000000", "price": "0.99600000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.99300000" }, { "size": "10615.20000000", "price": "0.99200000" }, { "size": "3184.56000000", "price": "0.99100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.99000000" }, { "size": "144.00000000", "price": "0.98800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.98700000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.97600000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.97400000" }, { "size": "770.00000000", "price": "0.97100000" }, { "size": "45.00000000", "price": "0.96700000" }, { "size": "152.26000000", "price": "0.96300000" }, { "size": "887.20000000", "price": "0.96200000" } ], "bids": [ { "size": "12014.29000000", "price": "0.00100000" }, { "size": "7500.00000000", "price": "0.00200000" }, { "size": "10007.11000000", "price": "0.00300000" }, { "size": "5000.00000000", "price": "0.00400000" }, { "size": "2500.00000000", "price": "0.00600000" }, { "size": "9.52000000", "price": "0.00700000" }, { "size": "74505.00000000", "price": "0.01000000" }, { "size": "6112.31000000", "price": "0.01100000" }, { "size": "32749.99000000", "price": "0.02000000" }, { "size": "7663.71000000", "price": "0.02100000" }, { "size": "17500.00000000", "price": "0.03000000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.03100000" }, { "size": "15537.50000000", "price": "0.04000000" }, { "size": "8670.00000000", "price": "0.05000000" }, { "size": "6.46000000", "price": "0.05100000" }, { "size": "6666.67000000", "price": "0.06000000" }, { "size": "3928.57000000", "price": "0.07000000" }, { "size": "14800.00000000", "price": "0.07100000" }, { "size": "4062.50000000", "price": "0.08000000" }, { "size": "666.67000000", "price": "0.09000000" }, { "size": "4500.00000000", "price": "0.10000000" }, { "size": "1923.08000000", "price": "0.13000000" }, { "size": "14400.00000000", "price": "0.13100000" }, { "size": "4320.00000000", "price": "0.13200000" }, { "size": "3070.00000000", "price": "0.14000000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.14100000" }, { "size": "1250.00000000", "price": "0.16000000" }, { "size": "5.08000000", "price": "0.16300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.16400000" }, { "size": "495.00000000", "price": "0.18100000" }, { "size": "152.00000000", "price": "0.18200000" }, { "size": "154.05000000", "price": "0.32500000" }, { "size": "126.12000000", "price": "0.33300000" }, { "size": "1763.00000000", "price": "0.34100000" }, { "size": "528.90000000", "price": "0.34200000" }, { "size": "400.00000000", "price": "0.35000000" }, { "size": "5.05000000", "price": "0.40000000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.42300000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.45800000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.48900000" }, { "size": "70.28000000", "price": "0.49800000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.52600000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.60200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.61800000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.63200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.65200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.66200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.69200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.72200000" }, { "size": "2000.00000000", "price": "0.73900000" }, { "size": "600.00000000", "price": "0.74000000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.75200000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.77200000" }, { "size": "5.04000000", "price": "0.77900000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.78200000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.78300000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.78500000" }, { "size": "200.00000000", "price": "0.79500000" }, { "size": "1008.32000000", "price": "0.80100000" }, { "size": "302.49000000", "price": "0.80200000" }, { "size": "1685.00000000", "price": "0.80300000" }, { "size": "96.00000000", "price": "0.81100000" }, { "size": "72.00000000", "price": "0.82100000" }, { "size": "50.00000000", "price": "0.82200000" }, { "size": "97.00000000", "price": "0.83100000" }, { "size": "95.00000000", "price": "0.83500000" }, { "size": "100.00000000", "price": "0.83800000" }, { "size": "20.00000000", "price": "0.84100000" }, { "size": "15.00000000", "price": "0.84800000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.84900000" }, { "size": "105.00000000", "price": "0.85100000" }, { "size": "10.00000000", "price": "0.85300000" }, { "size": "30.00000000", "price": "0.85400000" }, { "size": "350.80000000", "price": "0.88000000" }, { "size": "11.32000000", "price": "0.88300000" }, { "size": "156.00000000", "price": "0.89700000" }, { "size": "5.99000000", "price": "0.91000000" }, { "size": "500.00000000", "price": "0.93200000" }, { "size": "113.00000000", "price": "0.93600000" }, { "size": "22.13000000", "price": "0.93900000" }, { "size": "161.48000000", "price": "0.94100000" }, { "size": "100.10000000", "price": "0.94300000" }, { "size": "52.00000000", "price": "0.94400000" }, { "size": "31.61000000", "price": "0.95100000" }, { "size": "5.00000000", "price": "0.95600000" }, { "size": "10.90000000", "price": "0.95700000" } ], "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z", "sourceTimestamp": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.102Z" }, "visibleLiquidityUsd": "853.48640000", "estimatedFeePerShare": "0.00000000", "estimatedSlippagePerShare": "0.00000000" }, "sourceRawId": null, "capturedAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:09.347Z" }, "rawSnapshot": null, "events": [ { "id": "cmqz21mal016npa0jjdej1yil", "schemaVersion": 1, "type": "OrderFilled", "source": "execution", "severity": "info", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "opportunityId": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "riskCheckId": null, "orderId": "cmqz21m8g016fpa0jbxc2gaex", "tradeId": "cmqz21m91016kpa0jt202t6rt", "positionId": "cmqz21m8w016ipa0jv7xrfwv3", "deploymentId": null, "payload": { "fees": "0.00000000", "orderId": "cmqz21m8g016fpa0jbxc2gaex", "fillSize": "10.39501040", "fillPrice": "0.96200000", "dailyPnlImpact": "-0.05197505", "pnlImpactKnown": true, "pnlImpactReason": null, "realizedPnlImpact": "0.00000000", "unrealizedPnlImpact": "-0.05197505" }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.789Z" }, { "id": "cmqz21mar016opa0js3iob16m", "schemaVersion": 1, "type": "PositionOpened", "source": "execution", "severity": "info", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "opportunityId": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "riskCheckId": null, "orderId": "cmqz21m8g016fpa0jbxc2gaex", "tradeId": "cmqz21m91016kpa0jt202t6rt", "positionId": "cmqz21m8w016ipa0jv7xrfwv3", "deploymentId": null, "payload": { "size": "10.39501040", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "entryPrice": "0.96200000", "positionId": "cmqz21m8w016ipa0jv7xrfwv3" }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.795Z" }, { "id": "cmqz21mau016ppa0jpgu1kz9v", "schemaVersion": 1, "type": "PnLUpdated", "source": "metrics", "severity": "info", "strategyId": "high-prob-bonds", "strategyVersion": "1.0.0", "marketId": "polymarket:0xb77424a53b7480164118374fb5e97b859bd12b696b1aea55d383ce798c060cf4", "opportunityId": "cmqz21lxn0166pa0jdkae9pjt", "decisionId": "cmqz21m1j0169pa0jy21nt24b", "riskCheckId": null, "orderId": "cmqz21m8g016fpa0jbxc2gaex", "tradeId": "cmqz21m91016kpa0jt202t6rt", "positionId": "cmqz21m8w016ipa0jv7xrfwv3", "deploymentId": null, "payload": { "dailyPnl": "-0.24811009", "realizedPnl": "0.00000000", "unrealizedPnl": "-0.24811009" }, "createdAt": "2026-06-29T10:08:21.799Z" } ] }